Japan Fall Foliage Forecast 2026: Peak Dates by City

Japan’s autumn color lasts far longer than the brief bloom at any one cherry-blossom spot. It begins in northern and high-elevation landscapes, then rolls south and downhill until maples in Tokyo, Kyoto, Osaka, and parts of Kyushu are still turning in December.

But 2026 comes with a few practical changes: Japan’s departure tax is now higher, Kyoto has a much steeper lodging-tax scale, and the national tax-free shopping process changes on November 1—right in the middle of foliage season.

The official 2026 autumn foliage forecast

On September 2, 2026, the Japan Meteorological Corporation released its first official autumn foliage forecast for the year. The takeaway for anyone planning a route: expect peak colors later than normal in almost every major destination.

Higher-than-average late-summer and autumn temperatures mean leaves are taking longer to turn. Sapporo is running 10 days behind its historical average, Nagano is 9 days late, and Hiroshima is a full week behind. The sole notable exception in the national forecast is Kagoshima in southern Kyushu, running 5 days earlier than usual.

Here is the complete city-by-city forecast across all 14 official monitoring cities:

City	Yellow Ginkgo Peak	Red Maple (Momiji) Peak	vs. Historical Average
Sapporo	November 6	November 7	10 days later
Aomori	November 6	November 13	Around average
Sendai	November 29	November 25	4 days later
Tokyo	November 26	November 29	1 day later
Kanazawa	November 10	November 30	1 day later
Nagano	November 14	November 21	9 days later
Nagoya	November 17	December 2	1 day earlier
Kyoto	November 27	December 11	Around average
Osaka	November 24	December 4	3 days later
Wakayama	November 26	December 11	4 days later
Hiroshima	November 20	November 28	7 days later
Kochi	November 16	December 9	4 days later
Fukuoka	November 27	December 7	2 days earlier
Kagoshima	November 27	December 10	5 days earlier

The Japan Meteorological Corporation issues several revisions throughout the autumn. The second forecast lands in early October, so check back then if your dates sit right on the edge of peak color.

Peak timing by region

Use these broad windows to choose a route, then check the forecast and each destination’s live color report closer to travel. The Japan National Tourism Organization describes the nationwide season as running from late September to early December.

• Hokkaido: high-elevation areas such as Daisetsuzan can begin in late September; lower elevations and cities follow through October and sometimes into early November.
• Tohoku: mountain areas can color in early to mid-October, with lower elevations continuing into November.
• Nikko, Hakone, and the Japan Alps: elevation creates a long window from October into mid-November. Build a route that can move uphill or downhill if timing shifts.
• Tokyo: the September 2 forecast puts ginkgo around November 26 and red maple around November 29.
• Kyoto and Osaka: ginkgo is forecast for November 27 in Kyoto and November 24 in Osaka; red maple follows around December 11 and December 4.
• Kyushu: many lowland spots peak from late November into December, while mountains turn earlier.

At one garden or temple, the strongest color may last only a week or two. Wind, heavy rain, and an early frost can shorten it. A flexible two- or three-stop route gives you better odds than betting the trip on one famous garden on one date.

Book Kyoto first

Late November is one of Kyoto’s busiest periods. Central hotels and popular ryokan can sell out well ahead, and night illuminations or special autumn openings may use advance tickets. If Kyoto is the anchor of your trip, reserve lodging before building the rest of the route and check each venue’s official site for current admission rules.

Tokyo has far more hotel inventory, while northern regions generally give you more flexibility. If Kyoto’s dates or prices do not work, Tohoku in October can deliver an equally strong autumn trip with a different pace.

What costs more in 2026

Japan’s departure tax is now ¥3,000

Japan’s international tourist tax rose from ¥1,000 to ¥3,000 per departure on July 1, 2026. It is generally collected by the airline or other carrier and reflected in the ticket total, so most travelers will not pay it at an airport counter. Limited exemptions and a transition rule for certain transport contracts made before July 1 apply.

Kyoto’s lodging tax now reaches ¥10,000

Kyoto changed its accommodation-tax tiers on March 1, 2026. The tax is charged per person, per night, according to the accommodation charge:

• Under ¥6,000: ¥200
• ¥6,000–¥19,999: ¥400
• ¥20,000–¥49,999: ¥1,000
• ¥50,000–¥99,999: ¥4,000
• ¥100,000 or more: ¥10,000

That top number is real, but it applies only to accommodation costing at least ¥100,000 per person per night. Confirm whether your booking total includes the tax; collection can vary by property and platform. Kyoto publishes the current table on its official travel site.

The November 1 tax-free shopping switch

Japan changes to a refund-based tax-free shopping system on November 1, 2026. The important distinction is who confirms the export and who sends the money:

• Through October 31: eligible visitors generally receive the consumption-tax exemption at a designated tax-free store when the purchase is recorded.
• From November 1: you pay the tax-inclusive price first. Customs confirms that the goods leave Japan, then the tax-free shop or its refund operator issues the refund using its stated method.

Do not assume there will be one universal airport refund counter. Ask the shop how its refund works, keep your purchase record and receipts, and leave extra time for departure procedures. If customs may need to inspect an item, keep it accessible. For goods going into checked baggage, complete any required customs confirmation before handing the bag to the airline.

Japan ended the old unaccompanied-baggage confirmation route in 2025, but that is different from an approved tax-free shop shipping goods directly overseas. Check the shop’s process instead of assuming that mailing an item yourself will qualify. The policy change is explained in the Ministry of Finance’s tax-reform guidance.

No, you do not need JESTA in 2026

Japan enacted legislation creating JESTA—the Japan Electronic System for Travel Authorization—in 2026. It is not operating now. Japan’s Immigration Services Agency says it is aiming to introduce the system during fiscal 2028, which runs through March 2029.

For an autumn 2026 trip, U.S. passport holders remain on Japan’s visa-exemption list for short stays. There is no official JESTA application to submit or fee to pay today. A site selling a JESTA or “Japan ESTA” now cannot obtain an official authorization for you. For more warning signs, read our guide to common scams in Japan.

You can use the government’s Visit Japan Web service to prepare immigration and customs information before arrival. It is not JESTA and it does not replace your passport or border inspection.

How to beat the crowds

• Start early. Famous gardens are quieter near opening, and low morning light is often better for photographs.
• Build alternatives into the day. Pair one marquee temple with a less-famous garden or a neighborhood walk nearby.
• Follow elevation. If a valley is still green, go higher; if mountain leaves have fallen, move downhill.
• Check official event pages. Autumn openings, illuminations, and timed-entry rules can change from year to year.
• Consider northern Japan. Tohoku and Hokkaido give October travelers outstanding color and a route that feels very different from the Tokyo–Kyoto corridor.

Practical notes

If your travel dates are still flexible, start with our best time to visit Japan guide. It explains Golden Week 2027, Obon, New Year closures, and the quieter weeks around each domestic travel wave.

• Pack layers. Tokyo and Kyoto may feel mild by day while mountains, Hokkaido, and early mornings can be cold.
• Keep some cash. Cards are common, but smaller temples, rural buses, lockers, and entrance booths may still need coins or bills.
• Price trains by route. Compare regional passes and nationwide passes with individual tickets; a pass is not automatically cheaper.
• Respect working religious sites. Follow photo restrictions, stay off moss and planted areas, and keep voices low.